Blueshift analysis reveals rising satellite launches are driving an escalating space debris risk

Phil Black - PII Editor 08/12/2025

139 3 minutes read

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New analysis from Blueshift has revealed more than 32,000 objects currently in Low Earth Orbit, prompting the company to call for safer, lighter and more resilient spacecraft design to prevent growing collision risks.

Blueshift, a leading technology provider in advanced thermal protection systems (TPS), has identified a significant rise in the risk of collision from falling space debris. This increase is closely tied to a decade-long surge in satellite launches, which has intensified the need for improved safety measures, reduced system weight and enhanced durability throughout rocket and satellite design.

Drawing on global space debris trends within orbital surveillance records from the US Department of Defense, Blueshift examined the rapid expansion of payload launches over the past ten years. The company found a direct correlation between rising launch activity and the latest debris data.

Current tracking shows more than 32,000 pieces of debris larger than 10cm circulating in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). With payload launches rising an estimated 30 to 40% in the last three years alone, and a dramatic 900% increase in launches from the US over the past decade, the scale of the challenge has accelerated sharply.

At the core of Blueshift’s response is its AeroZero material line, engineered specifically to tackle the growing thermal and structural challenges of modern spaceflight. Offering robust thermal protection across extreme temperature ranges from −200°C to +2,400°C, AeroZero reduces temperature gradients and helps insulate sensitive electronics during rapid orbital transitions. I

n vacuum conditions, AeroZero significantly slows conductive heat transfer, delivering a reduction of around 40°C in composite temperatures compared with traditional polyimide tape. The material also offers 19 times lower thermal conductivity and six times lower thermal diffusivity, resulting in enhanced thermal stability across spacecraft systems.

These properties help reduce thermal fatigue, protect electronics situated close to solar arrays and extend component lifespan, all of which are essential steps in lowering fragmentation risks and minimising long term debris generation.

The biggest sources of Space Junk falling to Earth

With more than 15,000 satellites launched since 1957, of which around 10,000 remain active, the volume of debris larger than 10cm in orbit has reached an unprecedented level. NASA and ESA estimate a further 131 million smaller, untracked fragments currently circulating in LEO.

This growing accumulation poses serious threats to active spacecraft and crewed missions. As debris levels rise, so too does the risk of destructive collisions and the onset of Kessler Syndrome, where a single high speed impact creates new debris fragments which in turn trigger further collisions.

These chain reactions can send debris falling back through orbit and in some cases returning to Earth, particularly when objects degrade in orbits below 600km.

The investigation highlights the nations most responsible for debris re-entering Earth. According to Blueshift’s analysis, three countries account for over 90% of all space debris that has fallen back to Earth in the past decade.

Russia leads with 3,162 pieces, more than double the 1,332 recorded from the US and ahead of China at 1,254 pieces. Although Russia’s total is highest, the growth rate has been significantly sharper in China and the US.

The rapid expansion of private operators and the commercialisation of US spaceflight has also contributed to the rising presence of spacecraft and orbital hardware. China has nearly doubled its annual launch frequency over the same period and remains the only nation to have increased its tracked debris count by roughly 1,000 additional pieces.

In parallel, approximately 8,000 Starlink satellites have been launched, greatly increasing traffic in LEO. Incidents such as the 2022 near collision between the Tiangong Station and two Starlink satellites, or the more recent collision damage to China’s Shenzhou 20 spacecraft which delayed astronaut return, underline the growing geopolitical and operational risks generated by debris.

Tim Burbey, President at Blueshift, highlights the company’s role in supporting a safer and more sustainable orbital environment:

“The data makes clear that space sustainability is no longer optional. As launch activity grows, so does the risk of collision. Our materials directly support safer spacecraft by reducing mass, minimizing thermal stress, and improving resilience under the extreme conditions of launch, orbit, and re-entry. By combining materials innovation with data-driven insight, we aim to reduce future fragmentation risks and support a safer orbital environment.”

As satellite networks expand and commercial space activity accelerates, the industry’s focus on lightweight, resilient and thermally stable materials will become increasingly integral to safe operations. Blueshift’s findings reinforce the need for continued innovation, better monitoring and stronger international cooperation to protect the long term sustainability of Low Earth Orbit.

Find out more about how Blueshift makes spaceflight safer and more sustainable

Read more about the biggest sources of space junk